Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.089800 2.198714 2.315332 2.450434 2.603894 2.774369 2.980379
2025-07-20 2.013115 2.157492 2.318734 2.514850 2.750913 3.031610 3.400310
2025-07-27 1.931351 2.094520 2.281846 2.517380 2.812924 3.183013 3.703565
2025-08-03 1.869015 2.045729 2.253081 2.520958 2.869125 3.325626 4.010778
2025-08-10 1.784578 1.963869 2.176970 2.456804 2.828532 3.330535 4.117841
2025-08-17 1.734073 1.919332 2.142602 2.441090 2.847413 3.415204 4.354404
2025-08-24 1.690917 1.880997 2.112884 2.427889 2.866382 3.499168 4.602630
2025-08-31 1.653561 1.847714 2.087178 2.417259 2.886395 3.584644 4.868910
2025-09-07 1.630978 1.831548 2.081962 2.432880 2.943762 3.732685 5.284712
2025-09-14 1.575501 1.771567 2.017150 2.362823 2.869367 3.659636 5.244883
2025-09-21 1.548566 1.747050 1.997709 2.354531 2.886307 3.738563 5.541120
2025-09-28 1.511781 1.708663 1.958430 2.316231 2.854573 3.730836 5.644001
2025-10-05 1.501630 1.705273 1.966701 2.347509 2.935357 3.934133 6.327684
2025-10-12 1.502111 1.715441 1.993213 2.406113 3.064244 4.246902 7.492565
2025-10-19 1.482871 1.698803 1.982215 2.408409 3.100586 4.387734 8.261378
2025-10-26 1.465183 1.683574 1.972409 2.411655 3.138320 4.537427 9.203985
2025-11-02 1.427980 1.641274 1.923564 2.353301 3.065452 4.441127 9.076832
2025-11-09 1.407024 1.620305 1.903975 2.338981 3.068738 4.512324 9.768066
2025-11-16 1.387865 1.601254 1.886441 2.326944 3.075006 4.591141 10.603178
2025-11-23 1.370375 1.584016 1.870908 2.317246 3.084609 4.679272 11.641325
2025-11-30 1.361280 1.577862 1.870791 2.331493 3.138612 4.883352 13.938001
2025-12-07 1.328488 1.538712 1.822498 2.267519 3.043197 4.701918 12.886502
2025-12-14 1.314089 1.524507 1.809750 2.259933 3.053478 4.791596 14.417332